NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 19, 2011. The outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular region.

NOAA's 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Summary fo the NOAA 2011 season outlook.

The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. NOAA estimates a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

12-18 Named Storms,
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes

The 2011 season outlook is compared to the season averages and the 2010 season in the table below.

One of the reasons the the 2011 season is forecast to be an above-normal season is the above-average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea where most hurricanes develop.

The map shows the sea surface temperature anomaly (difference from normal). the green rectangle indicates the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes in the Atlantic. The top line graph shows the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the MDR for the last 60 years and the bottom line graph shows the SST anomaly for he MDR compared to the global tropical ocean.

Sea surface temperature has a large influence on hurricane development. For the complete explanation of the 2011 season outlook, visit the NOAA page:

The NOAA 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Press Release for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook